Despite Popular Belief, Burnett on 3 Days Rest Not Worst Idea Ever

Much has been written about Joe Girardi's decision to go with three starting pitchers for the World Series.  The overall track record is clear, starting pitchers on average have not not performed as well on three days rest in the postseason as they have on four.  For evidence of this see the table below.  It shows the resulting stats of pitchers who started on three days rest during the postseason vs. what those pitchers' stats were during the regular season of that year. 

Based on this, it should not have been a surprise to see AJ Burnett pitch ineffectively on Monday.  But what upsets me are the Blowhards who will (or have already) look at these results and say I told you so (even if they didn't).  Fortunately an extremely talented writer over at Fangraphs named Dave Cameron is already on top of it:

For many people, [these] two facts represent a causal relationship. Burnett struggled badly while going on short rest, so therefore, short rest caused the bad pitching. Unfortunately, life is never that simple.

The usual critique against bringing a pitcher back on short rest is that his stuff won’t be as crisp as it usually is. Burnett, however, was throwing his regular gas last night. His fastball averaged 94.2 MPH this season, and he sat at 93.8 MPH in his brilliant game two outing. Last night, his fastball averaged 94.5 MPH. Same deal with his curveball – 82.0 MPH on the season, 82.3 MPH last night.

In terms of velocity, Burnett had his usual arsenal. His fastball still had sink, and his curveball still had bite. The problem was that he couldn’t throw them for strikes.

--snip--

Of course, there’s the possibility that Burnett’s inability to throw strikes was due in part to his altered schedule. However, that’s something we simply can’t know. Burnett is not exactly the model of consistency. In five different starts during the regular season, he gave up six or more runs. On April 19th, he walked seven batters, and he issued six free passes on two other occasions. And, of course, he got torched in the first inning by the Angels in the ALCS less than two weeks ago. He did all of that on regular four day rest. Consistent command of his pitches is never something Burnett has had, and he probably never will. He’s a guy with great stuff who doesn’t always pitch up to the level of his natural abilities.

I certainly couldn't have said it better myself (and that's why I didn't).  The media loves to overreact to singular events.  But the fact is AJ Burnett has pitched quite well on three days rest in his career.  And when you compare it to the Yankees alternative for game 4, Chad Gaudin, AJ was the clear choice.  Lefties' triple slash stats (average / on-base / slugging) against Gaudin for his career are .293 / .389 / .433.  Simply put, the average lefty becomes Bobby Abreu when facing him.  Now imagine what lefties like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Raul Ibanez become when facing that type of pitcher.  And that's not evening considering the fact that Gaudin has thrown one whole inning in the last month.

Now might it have been worth it to just sacrifice Game 5 and go at it with a fully rested AJ Burnett in Game 6?  Sure, it might have.  Unless bad AJ rears his ugly head on full rest just as he has on numerous occasions throughout this season.  Girardi has made plenty of questionable decisions this postseason, but this was not one of them.  He's got three two shots at one last win this season and he's going after that one win with the best pitchers he's got.  And as long as those pitchers are perfectly fine with throwing on short rest in pursuit of a Championship,  I just don't see how you can argue with that.