Another Low Cost, Potentially High Upside Pickup for Sox

While the Yankees were in the process of finishing off the Phillies for their 27th World Series Title, GM's from the other 28 teams were already hard at work, looking forward to 2010.  Several deals have already been completed with plenty more sure to come.  And as those deals are finalized, I'll be letting you know what these deals mean for the teams involved right here at Northeast Bias.  So I'll kick of this season of Hot Stove Analysis with the Red Sox' groundbreaking acquisition of Jeremy Hermida (ok, it's not so groundbreaking, I just love me some Hot Stove talk).

The Upside: Hermida is a one time 11th overall pick and ranked # 4 on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects of 2006. BA also quotes an anonymous scout at the time as saying: "Everything he does is so easy. He has a 70 arm and he has one of the sweetest swings from the left side I've ever seen." (For those not aware, that "70" refers the scouts 20-80 scale on which they rate prospect skills, 80 being the best grade, 20 being the worst). Hermida then showed us all flashes of that top end potential in 2007 when batted .296/.369/.501 over 429 At-Bats.

The Downside: Hermida has flashed little of that potential since '07. His 2008 and 2009 seasons were forgettable at best, posting batting lines of .249/.323/.406 and .259/.348/.392, respectively. To make matters worse, after diving deeper into his promising 2007 season, you'll find that his BABiP* (Batting Average on Balls in Play) was a rather unsustainable .356. His defense also isn't great and that "70 arm" that the anonymous scout referred to above apparently has lost a gear or two since his call-up.

*For those unfamiliar with the vagaries of BABiP, here's a quick rundown. As the name suggests, this stat would include all at-bats that result in the ball being put in play (i.e. not a home run, strikeout, or walk). It has been shown that batters do have some control over their BAPiP (unlike pitchers and their BABiP against, but that's a post for another day). As a result, a batter's BABiP is generally consistent over his career. In Hermida's case, in his 3 other Major League seasons in which he's logged at least 300 AB's, his BABiP's have been .310, .311, and .311, respectively. Now put his 2007 BABiP of .356 alongside those numbers and tell me which one does not belong. This would suggest that Hermida benefited from some good luck in 2007.

Bottom Line: This deal follows Boston's blueprint of acquiring low cost, potentially high upside players. The strategy didn't work out too well with John Smoltz and Brad Penny last year but that doesn't mean it's a bad blueprint to follow. Nothing bad can really come of it because if the player doesn't work out, it doesn't really matter since it was a low cost acquisition. If it doesn't work out the Red Sox can just dump him (like they did with Smoltz and Penny) and at a projected salary of $2-3M (depending on Hermida's upcoming arbitration case) it's a no lose situation ($3 million is a rounding error for Boston). Hermida is decent insurance in case Jason Bay doesn't stay with the Red Sox and they don't acquire someone like Matt Holliday to replace him. Hermida's upside results not only from the fact that he was at one time considered a "can't miss" prospect, but also from the fact that he's still only 25 years old.  Considering that hitters generally hit their peak performance around the age of 27, Hermida's best years should still be in front of him.  And as Rob Neyer points out in his post on this subject, Hermida combined with a decent righty bat makes for a solid, if not inspiring, corner OF platoon even if he never quite approaches his star potential.